A small field takes to the course for this apprentice rider class 5 handicap. Quite a few of the horses turn up here in good form with 9 wins between four of the contenders in each of their last six races.
The likely favourite will be the Marco Botti trained Stargazing. The 5yo mare has won her last two starts over C&D. She will be well fancied to complete a hat-trick.
We are looking for some value in the race however, and that may lie with Black Coffee. The gelding has been in the form of his life lately and this drop back to a lower grade will suit. Forecasts have the price around 11/2 and that would be more than generous I feel.
A danger to Black Coffee (BC) may be The Winged Assasin. The 5yo finished ahead of BC on the 29th of December at the track and if you read that form literally then you would be backing him to do the same tomorrow. He too has a good record around dunstall park.
Hopefully the race will not be a crawl as BC would prefer an honest gallop.
I believe taking on the favourite is the way to go here. The reasons for this are:
- There has been no real signal that she is a genuine massive improver
- She has climbed the weights after her two recent successes
- The times of her two victories are nothing to write home about.
She may have enough improvement in her to take this race but at the prices I would want to be with black coffee, with an interest on the winged assasin.
1. Black Coffee
2. The Winged Assasin
3. Stargazing
Anyone agree or disagree? Would be excellent to hear other views!
